Did the Recliners really take 2 TEs in their first 4 picks? (Yes. They really did, and one of them was not named Kelce or Andrews!)
It wouldn't be draft day without the annual trophy presentation. One-every-30-years champion Vern Ahrendes (JSFL Champion, classes of 1991 and 2021) presents the newly-named Matt Huey Memorial Trophy to Matt Pringle, 2022 champ.
Well, I would not be in front of a keyboard trying to parse out the early favorites and the dark
horses to watch for as the season unfolds if I knew the answer to those questions. I'd be sitting back, sipping Mai Tais as my team won every game without any worry. But that's not how these fantasy leagues work. Ask Tirades owner Ron Hender, who should offer a "Who You Should Start this Week" seminar just so everyone could do the exact opposite (and win).
To start, let’s take a hard look at the keepers this year, as there were several head-shakers.
The keepers, in order, were RB Nick Chubb (Jordan), WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (Band Aids), WR Garrett Wilson (Invaiders), RB Austin Ekeler (Gerbils), WR Justin Jefferson (Rangers), WR Ja’Marr Chase (Pack), WR Cooper Kupp (Tirades), RB Tony Pollard (Recliners), RB Derrick Henry (Beaters) and Jonathan Taylor (Blazing Saddles).
Two of those keepers – St. Brown and Taylor – both made me happy knowing better players than I imagined were going to be available. According to my draft board, both were first-round reaches, and were not keeper worthy at all.
Bob probably could have drafted St. Brown with his first or second pick. Taylor, because of his contract squabble with the Colts, likely stays on the board for at least two rounds, maybe as many as three or four. And, as I am writing this on August 29, the deadline to work out a deal passed and Taylor will start the season on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list. It was a huge gamble on Blayze’s part and it might bite him in the Saddles. Editor’s update: No deal was signed. Taylor will miss the first 4 weeks of the season.
Call me stupid if these guys pan out, or maybe they had no one better to protect.
The other big early reaches came in the second round for the Gerbils (Najee Harris) and the Pack (Travis Etienne).
Since this is a points league, one of the easiest ways to evaluate draft performance is to look at the projected scoring totals for Week 1 to see who did well, and who has some work to do when the transaction wire opens at 10 a.m. Tuesday, September 5.
Shit-Talkers Division
Favorite: Band Aids
Darkhorse: Gerbils
Band Aids: Only one team is projected in triple digits – those dang Band Aids – in Week 1, and the scoring tendency might be enough to win a division in a down year. And Bob, I hate to admit, had a good draft as I was right behind him and I quietly swore several times over guys he grabbed right in front of me. But looking deeper into the roster, the Band Aids might still have some holes to plug. His first two picks were gems – rookie RB Bijan Robinson (right) and QB Patrick Mahomes. Those might cover warts in a lot of other areas. He still has a stud at TE in Mark Andrews but his second RB and WR choices are sketchy at best.
Gerbils: The team that looks like the one to beat in this division is Chuck Nelson’s Gerbils. OK, once you pick yourself off of the floor, sit down and let me explain why.Chuck made some heads turn when he took RB Najee Harris (left, a questionable reach in the second round) to team with keeper Austin Ekeler. The head-spinning continued when he passed on Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen – the Rangers and Pack thank you, respectively – and took QB Joe Burrow with his third pick. Burrow is hurt and was not expected to score as many points as Hurts or Allen. He did a nice stack with WR Tee Higgins and kept the Rangers from nabbing DeVonta Smith, before taking George Kittle at TE, RB James Connor, and WRs Christian Kirk and Jameson Williams. Williams is expected back in late October or early November. The points he piles up from Ekeler, Devonta, Higgins and Burrow, if he plays, might be enough.
Packers: Jeff went with three RBs in his first four picks (Travis Etienne, Dameon Pierce and J.K. Dobbins), sandwiched around long-time QB Josh Allen. After those first five, the roster gets a little sketchy. WRs vying for the No. 2 starting job are Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin (injured) and Kadarius Toney (also injured). Expect Jeff to be busy on the waiver wire early in the season.
Tirades: After losing Christian McCaffrey in a disallowed pre-draft trade with the Gerbils, the Tirades rallied to protect Kupp and pieced together some interesting parts in WR Deebo Samuel, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, WR Christian Watson and RB Alexander Mattison.
Blazing Saddles: With the first pick in 2024, the Blazing Saddles … Miss a draft and pay the consequences. Protect a player holding out and pay the consequences. All he can hope for is the dispute between management and Taylor is settled by Week 5, but as long as Taylor is on the PUP List, he is not going anywhere. The starting lineup appears to be Joe Mixon and David Montgomery, Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley and Mike Williams. And his starting QB, Dallas, was taken while other teams were starting to take their backups. Again, I may be reading these tea leaves all wrong, but this looks like a dreadful roster.
Silent Division
Favorite: Rangers
Darkhorse: Beaters
Beaters: The defending champs likely will get a challenge from several teams this season. The “still-unnamed-team” Jordan took over, looks strong at the top, the Invaiders are much improved and the Rangers and Recliners are going to make some noise. Matt thinks if two or three of his “draft-day” prayers come through, he will be in the mix. But, the Beaters’ best player likely is not on his lineup yet. The heart of the Beaters’ production will be keeper RB Derrick Henry and his first three picks – all WRs – Tyreek Hill (right), A.J. Brown and Chris Olave. Funny story, but boneheaded nonetheless. I had already crossed Tyreek Hill off of my draft board before leaving for Del Mar last week because I assumed he was going to be protected on Draft Day. I forgot he was still there when I took WR Stefon Diggs. How he got by Chris (he took TE Travis Kelce instead), I don’t know. The other two cornerstones for the Beaters are TE T.J. Hockenson (taken fourth after the Recliners took his second TE in Darren Waller in the first four rounds) and QB Justin Fields (taken 7th, four rounds after the last QB was taken in Lamar Jackson).
Jordan: Any team that starts with RBs Nick Chubb and Christian McCaffrey (left) is going to be a load to handle. His WR corps is suspect as he took Jaylen Waddle instead of CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel or A.J. Brown. That pick surprised me. He took QB Justin Herbert, and then RB RAchaad White before four questionable receiver picks – D.J. Moore, TE Pat Freiermuth, Michael Pittman Jr. and Marquise Brown.
Invaiders: The second-highest score forecast for Week 1 is from yours truly. I had two productive RBs fall to me in Saquon Barkley and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and went WR heavy in Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb. Kyle Pitts gets the start at tight end. The Invaiders also finally have a quality QB in Lamar Jackson for the first time in three years. The sneaky pick to watch was the grab of RB Alvin Kamara, a former Invaider cornerstone, who is suspended for the first three weeks of the season.
Rangers: The first three in this lineup – WR Justin Jefferson, RB Josh Jacobs and QB Jalen Hurts – all might lead their position in scoring. Beyond his core three, John has plenty of question marks. He brought back RB Breece Hall, still recovering from his season-ending knee injury last year, with his third pick, and then picked up two interesting WRs in Keenan Allen and George Pickens (token Steeler). The Denver lead back to start the season – either Jamaal Williams or Samaje Perine, whoever gets the start in Week 1 – will hold down the fort until Breece is back in the mix in mid-October to early November.
Recliners: Two tight ends in the first four rounds? That is what Chris did this year. He took all-world Travis Kelce with his first pick, and then came back with Darren Waller two rounds later when some great receivers and running backs were still on the board. Maybe Waller is insurance in case Kelce goes down, or maybe Waller will be his flex play. He looks to have four steady scorers to pair with Kelce -- two steady RBs in Tony Pollard and Aaron Jones, WR DK Metcalf, and he got one of the best steals of the draft in QB Trevor Lawrence in the 8th round.
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