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All-in, or fool's gold?

Updated: Nov 21

The race for the final playoff spot goes into overdrive as five teams have various degrees of probability at reaching the postseason

Matt Pringle hopes that his trade for Band Aids keeper Amon-Ra St. Brown has the Beaters pointed toward a playoff spot.


There comes a time in every season where a big move is needed, either grabbing that jewel on the waiver wire Tuesday morning (at 10 a.m. PST, John, 11 a.m. for you folks in Arizona who are smart enough not to fall back) or pulling off a blockbuster deal … or two. Bob Garcia had three of those moments this week as he realized he was gashed by the bye-week challenge and looking at a nearly 20-point underdog scenario against Who Dey this weekend. When the Bob Dog gets cornered, he goes shopping.


He pulled off not one but two blockbuster moves as the JSFL closes in on its November 29 trade deadline – shipping RB Bucky Irving to and a fifth-round pick near year (who needs picks?) for RB Josh Jacobs, and before the ink could dry on that deal he turned around and shipping the “Sun God” and 2-year protectee WR Amon-Ra St. Brown straight up to the Spread Beaters for WR Cooper “Fucking” Kupp.


The trades will send reverberations throughout the league as Garcia positions himself to lay claim to the steaming turd pile that is his division and advance to the playoffs and Matt Pringle significantly improves his receiving corps for the final five-week sprint to the money round. Three of the four playoff positions, barring a complete collapse, appear to be on the verge of being wrapped up.


The Recliners (odds give Chris a 99-percent chance of looking up a spot as he is three games clear of the rest of the Silent Division), Band Aids (a 93-percent chance) and Rangers (a 70-percent chance) all improved their odds with Week 10 wins and the Beaters’ win last week improved its odds as the team now most likely to claim the final slot. Pringle’s win boosted his chance to claim that final playoff spot to 41 percent (and that was before the St. Brown trade), edging out WTNE (35 percent), the Invaiders (26 percent) and the Tirades (19 percent). Who Dey, the Gerbils and the Pack all have single-digit percentage chances of advancing to the money round.


The matchups of the week have to be the front-running Hermosa Beach Recliners playing host to the defending champ Santa Monica Spread Beaters, and the Rangers playing host to Jordan’s WTNE. As previously mentioned, Pringle is coming off a clutch win in Week 10 against WTNE and now sits in a three-way tie for third (and last) in the Silent Division with Jordan and Vern, just one game back of John’s Rangers at 6-4.


With a three-game lead on the division, Chris’ Recliners have lowered their magic number to clinch a playoff spot to two more wins or two more Ranger losses. And, unless the Tirades go on a heater, it appears the playoff slate could come down to one of those three teams tied for third in the Silent Division. Hender can go a long way to jump-starting the closing-weeks’ push with a win this week over his rival the Invaiders. With that much on the line, you know the Invaiders will be sitting in the weeds ready to put a dagger or two into the Tirades’ hopes.


Other game of note on the slate this week is the Band Aids hoping to move one game closer to its magic number with a road game at Who Dey.

 

The week ahead


The NFL starts the week Thursday with two high-octane candidates as the Commanders travel to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the Eagles. The star-studded lineups will dramatically set the tone for several JSFL games this weekend as this has the second-highest “over/under” line on the slate this week at 49 points, second only to the 49.5 points projected out of the Seattle at San Francisco game Sunday afternoon. The week of play wraps with a dog pairing on Monday Night as the Houston Texans travel to Dallas to take on the punchless Cowboys (bet the under). Not the Cowboys in prime time again? Nooooooooooo! Anyone but the Cowboys!


Four teams take a powder this week (Arizona, Carolina, N.Y. Giants and Tampa Bay) before two 6-team byemaggedons loom in the playoff-critical Weeks 12 (Atlanta, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, New Orleans and N.Y. Jets) and Week 14 (Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, New England and Washington). Adjust accordingly.

Here's a look at the week eleven matchups.

 

Game of the Week


Rangers (6-4) vs WTNE (5-5), Rangers favored by 3: John and Jordan both get the jump on a good weekend start as John’s quarterback, Jalen Hurts, takes the field Thursday night against Jordan’s lead RB Saquon Barkley in a truly crucial game for WTNE. If Hurts drops 30 or more on Jordan in the opener, the WTNE season might be over. And, John, after the transaction wide receiver drama this week over Calvin Ridley, needs to get some scoring, any scoring, from his WR2 position. The statistical edge leans heavily in John’s direction with Hurts at QB, RB Kyren Williams, WR Davante Adams, tight end George Kittle, flex WR Nico Collins and at kicker (justin Tucker of Baltimore). Jordan counters in the Thursday opener with the No. 2-ranked RB in the league (Saquon Barkley) and QB Joe Burrow slinging arrows at the Chargers. This game might come down to who gets the touchdown carries inside the 5 for Philly. Jordan also gets the nod at WR2 (Puka Nacua) and the Lions’ defense. John’s lineup is littered with “questionable” tags as of this writing (Adams, Kittle, and Collins; sounds like an awesome law firm or a hellacious drink). Take the Rangers by 1.

 

The Close Ones?


Spread Beaters (5-5) vs Recliners (9-1), Beaters favored by 4: The bye schedule gouges these two teams in a dramatic way, and could give Pringle a leg up when he needs it the most. The swap of Kupp for the “Sun God” did not alter this line (both are projected for 9 points this week), but give the Beaters a big, upside scoring punch down the stretch. Chris loses rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Giants’ defense, while Pringle loses QB starter Kyler Murray, leaving him into a forced start of the resurgent Russell Wilson Jr. III of Pittsburgh. The matchups, as a whole, all favor Pringle’s squad. It gets the check mark for the better lead back in top-ranked Derrick Henry. He also gets the statistical nod at WR with Amon-Ra, tight end with Travis Kelce and flex in RB J.K. Dobbins. The Recliners counter with edge at RB2 in Joe Mixon at Dallas Monday night, WR Garrett Wilson, and at kicker (Green Bay’s Brandon McManus). Take the Beaters by 1 to tighten things up in the Silent Division.

 

Tirades (4-6) vs Invaiders (5-5), Tirades favored by 10: As I wrote about the Tirades vs. Band Aids tilt last week, the team I face this week is drastically different from the one I faced two weeks ago. And, the stakes this time around could not be higher. The Tirades have to win to keep any playoff hope aspirations in place, and the Invaders have to win just to be a dick to Ron and keep his also slimming hopes alive. A loss now and the fork might be in either of these teams. The course for the Tirades drastically altered in the last two weeks with the addition of Ja’Marr Chase, who dropped a 44-bomb on Garcia last week, and still lost. The other big change from the lineup I faced two weeks ago (an Invaider win, 78-65, when no Tirade scored at all) is a healthy RB Christian McCaffrey. The over/under on this matchup is 170 points, with Ron likely to score more than 100 of those calculated points. He is heavily favored at nearly every starting position (both RBs in McCaffrey and David Montgomery, WR1 in Chase, TE T.J. Hockenson, flex in RB Nick Chubb and kicker Harrison Butker). The only salvation for the Invaiders is a statistical draw at QB (Ron has Josh Allen and I counter with Brock Purdy), and a slight edge at WR2 (Cedric Tillman). This could be a rout of epic proportions or another nailbiter if none of the Tirades players score TDs. Again. Take the Tirades by 10.

 

Packers (2-8) vs Gerbils (3-7), Gerbils favored by 5. Chuck, there is no time like the present to get your head out of your rear end and put a win streak together and get back in this thing. Statistically, this is the matchup to take advantage of as he gets the nod at four starting positions, Jeff gets only two and three others are a statistical draw. The return of WR A.J. Brown has given new life to the Gerbils offense and a good start Thursday is mandatory. Chuck’s scoring edge comes at tight end (Dalton Kincaid), flex (WR Zay Flowers), defense (the Rams) and at kicker (Cameron Dicker of the Chargers). Jeff gets an edge at both WR positions (George Pickens and Deebo Samuel). The push comes at QB (Jeff has the Jets, Chuck the Vikings) and both RBs (Jeff has De’Von Achane and Kenneth Walker III and Chuck counters with Jahmyr Gibbs and Chase Brown).  Take the Gerbils (with a shot of whiskey) and 5.

 

The Blowout?


Who Dey (4-6) vs Band Aids (7-3), Who Dey favored by 3: Bob loses 30 points this week with the bye hits against James Conner, Chuba Hubbard and the Tampa kicker (Chase McLaughlin). Who Dey is heavily favored at this writing at six starting positions, but Bob closed out two trades (netting him a potential 11 points from Josh Jacobs) has a way with waiver wire magic and he was the recipient of the Calvin Ridley mess and slides him and his projected 8 points into the flex position. He may not be done, and likely turns this one into a rout before it is over. For now, ESPN favors Matty at RB (Raheem Mostert), WR (Justin Jefferson), tight end (Taysom Hill, him again?), flex (RB James Cook of Buffalo), defense (the Vikings) and kicker (Jake Bates of the Lions). Bob gets a nod at quarterback with the league’s best, Lamar Jackson, RB2 with Kareem Hunt and WR2 (Terry McLaurin Thursday night). Bob may not be done dealing. Stay tuned. Take the Band Aids by 10.

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