There are three barnburners – featuring two top teams in each division – on the docket this week, and family is involved in most of them. Buckle up. This. Is. Going. To. Be. Fun.
The Band Aids will be without Bijan Robinson this week but are still 7-point favorites.
And the fun is just in time for Thanksgiving. And, because we are so public-service minded here at JSFL Today, just remember we have three games on the slate next Thursday with the regular Thanksgiving festivities – including the brewing battle between the 49ers and Seahawks (read: blowout win for SF. Go Niners!).
Over in the crap-talkers’ division, the 8-2 Band Aids take on son-in-law Blayze, one game off the pace at 7-3. Both are odds-on favorites to advance to the postseason as the Band Aids currently have a 94-percent chance to advance. The Blazing Saddles carry the next best chance at 72 percent. The Pack, sitting at 6-4, have a 54-percent chance to advance.
In the Silent Division, two of the three teams tied for first – the 6-4 WTNE and the Chandler Rangers – tangle. While they are both tied with The Pack, Jordan’s WTNE (52 percent chance to advance to the Final Four) and John’s Rangers (40 percent chance) have more challenging roads to the postseason than Commissioner Jeff does. The Pack draws the resurgent Gerbils this week, then closes with Bob’s Band Aids in Week 12, the Saddles in Week 13, the Tirades in Week 14 and closes with Jordan in Week 15.
These three games might be the best postseason preview we will get over the final five weeks of regular-season play. The other two on the slate are potential 20-point blowouts.
And, if it helps, here are the latest total points predictions, per CBS, for the top games on the slate. In other words, the most likely places to find points if you still need them. The 49 points predicted in the Cardinals vs. Texans game tops the list. The Bears and Lions are expected to combine for 48 points, Raiders at Dolphins and Seahawks at Rams are both predicted at 46.5 points and the Thursday match between the Bengals and Ravens at 46 points. The 33 points predicted for the Steelers at Browns is this week’s trash can for potential points.
Trade Deadline in 2 Weeks
‘Tis the season to make last-minute Black Friday shopping decisions for the postseason. Rangers WR Justin Jefferson, Spread Beater RB Derrick Henry, and Saddle RB Jonathan Taylor are soon-to-be free agents if not moved by midnight December 1, which is just two weeks away from this Friday. The phone lines and email offers, I am told, have been perking along. If Matt, Blayze and John opt to keep these three on their roster for a playoff run, they become free agents at the end of this season and likely rise to the top of most draft boards next August.
‘The Swami” Should Quit Now
The Swami went 5-0 last week, sniffing out that Spread Beaters upset in advance. Maybe he should just rest on his laurels and quit now before the stench from his picks draws down the season totals. Ron is keeping my up-to-date stats but it must be somewhere near where my Invaiders are now, about 60 percent. Not bad. (Editor's note: Swami is 30-20, which, even with the editor's shitty math skills, looks a lot like 60 percent). Like Bob and I learned in the strolling circle outside of Del Mar, you gotta look ‘em in the eyes to see if they have any fight left. And, I gotta say, the Gerbils have that look these days.
Week 11 Schedule
Four more teams – and several top players – are on bye in the coming week. Taking the week off are the Atlanta Falcons (sayonara Bijan Robinson), the New Orleans Saints (adios Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara), the New England Patriots (Rhamondre fades away) and the Indianapolis Colts (Jonathan Taylor).
Thank goodness the Europe games are over – maybe the Europeans said “nyet” to any more NFL games after that horrible Colts vs. Patriots game in Frankfurt last Sunday morning. Week 11 kicks off with a treasure trove of talent Thursday as the Ravens play host to the Bengals. The Sunday Night game features the Vikings traveling to the Broncos, and the Monday Night game is another treasure trove of talent as the Chiefs play host to the Eagles.
Games of the Week
Band Aids vs. Blazing Saddles, Band Aids favored by 7: These two teams tangled back in Week 7 and Bob walked away with a 17-point win. We don’t think he will be as lucky this time around. There might be a few hurdles for Blayze to overcome, and it starts at the QB position. ESPN gives even odds to both starters (Patrick Mahomes for Bob, and Dak Prescott … who is on a 3-week heater … for Blayze). Unfortunately for Blayze, Mahomes likely is in a shoot-out with Philadelphia and Prescott might be resting by halftime in a likely blowout with Carolina. The split positional advantage at the two RB spots (Kenneth Walker III for Bob at his Rams over Joe Mixon for Blayze; and Davind Montgomery for Blayze over Raheem Mostert for Bob). Bob gets advantages at both WRs (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tank Dell), tight end (Mark Andrews) flex (the recently traded-for Brandon Aiyuk), and kicker (Justin Tucker). Blayze’s defense gets the nod with Miami as Bob’s Ravens might be in a shootout with the Bengals at “The Jungle.” We sniff an upset in the making in this one. Take the Saddles and 1.
Rangers vs. WTNE, even odds: I know this sounds crazy, but this potentially could be a tiebreaker for a spot in the playoffs. A win here might be the difference between who plays on, and who goes home until August. I could be completely wrong, but this is shaping up to be the best of the bunch. The big question mark still sits with WR Justin Jefferson for John. He is still officially listed on IR but ESPN is going out on a limb and saying he will play and score 11 this weekend. John gets the advantage at QB with Jalen Hurts over Jordan’s Justin Herbert. Jordan gets the nod at RB (Christian McCaffrey), flex (DJ Moore over Jaylen Warren, and defense (Buffalo over Detroit). John’s Rangers get the advantage at both WRs (Jefferson and Keenan Allen). We will lean John’s way assuming Jefferson suits up and has a big day. Take the Rangers and 1.
Best of the Rest
Packers vs. Gerbils, Pack favored by 2: This one might be a far cry from the 30-point blowout Jeff enjoyed back in Week 7. Chuck is fielding a team, now, and is one scary team to face off with as the temps start to fall. Positional advantages go Jeff’s way in three spots (Josh Allen and both WRs, Ja’Marr Chase and Mike Evans). Chuck has an advantage at RB (Austin Ekeler). There are three other positions (RB2, TE, defense and kicker) that are “pick ‘em. The Swami, unfortunately, can’t do the same. Sorry, Chuck, but The Swami can’t pick against the Commissioner. It is contractual. Take the Pack and 1.
Dogs of the Week
Invaiders vs. Tirades, Invaiders favored by 21: The Invaiders, the third team tied for first in the Silent Division, come into this matchup on a four-game winning streak. After falling to 2 games under .500, the Invaiders now sit 2 games over and hope to extend that to 3 over this weekend. The Tirades’ “fire sale” has started in earnest but Ron is still expected to put up a potent fight in this one if Darrell Henderson Jr. performs above expectations. And this game likely comes down to that game between the Seahawks and Rams as the Tirades lean into Henderson at RB and Cooper Kupp at RB. Ron is also hoping for another big day from his 49er trio of Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel and Jake Moody (kicker). Go Niners! It is obligatory.
The Invaiders just might have too much firepower at the eight positions they have advantages at. If Lamar Jackson gets off the dime tonight in Cincinnati, this one might be over early. Take the Invaiders and 15.
Spread Beaters vs. Recliners, Beaters favored by 9: A few weeks back, this one was circled as a potential battle for the division, but the season has soured quickly for Chris. And, Matt still might be a little red-assed over the 5-point loss the Recliners handed him in Week 6. Revenge! The Spread Beaters are nearly back to full strength from the byes and welcomes Miami’s “Tua-and-Tyreek Freak Show” back to the fold. That tandem at home to Las Vegas might decide this one. Chris comes into this one riding high on the high-octane Texans offense (there is a phrase we have not written in a long, long time) and the arm of QB CJ Stroud. Injury concerns still linger with his Green Bay duo of RB Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson, but any production out of Tony Pollard in a likely laugher with Carolina could also decide this one. We are not quite ready to be buying that recliner, Chris. Take the Spread Beaters by 5.
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